Trends and Determinants of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia: A Systematic Literature Review

Abstract

Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the leading cause of mortality and disease burden in Indonesia and have shown a substantial upward trend over the past decades due to demographic changes, urbanization, epidemiological transition, and lifestyle modifications. The increasing prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney disease has significantly affected population health and healthcare expenditure. This study aimed to identify the trends and analyze the determinants of NCDs in Indonesia through a systematic literature review. The review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines by searching articles published between 2014 and 2025 in PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Garuda. Eligible studies were screened based on predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, critically appraised, and synthesized narratively. The findings indicate that the prevalence of NCDs in Indonesia continues to increase and is influenced by a complex interaction of biological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. The most frequently reported determinants include older age, obesity, hypertension, hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, unhealthy dietary patterns, physical inactivity, educational attainment, income level, access to healthcare services, as well as environmental changes and urbanization. Furthermore, the growing prevalence of metabolic and behavioral risk factors highlights the need for more comprehensive interventions to prevent and control NCDs. This review concludes that effective NCD prevention and control in Indonesia require multisectoral strategies emphasizing health promotion, risk factor prevention, early detection, strengthened primary healthcare services, and evidence-based health policies to reduce the long-term burden of NCDs.